Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district will see a rematch between Congressman Jason Altmire (D) and former Congresswoman Melissa Hart (R) this November.  Altmire, who branded himself as a moderate, Bluedog Democrat, has turned out to be a reliable straight Democratic vote.  Columnist Robert Novak highlights this in a recent article for Human Events.  Hart was a conservative Republican who still met the needs of her district (which has more registered Democrats than Republican).  Melissa Hart lost her seat in 2006 for two reasons:  first, she was lazy in campaigning and didn't see Altmire as a credible challenger until it was too late; and second, the anti-Republican-incumbant sense was incredibly strong that year.  Now, however, I believe Ms. Hart has learned her lesson.  In 2006, Hart had a record that Altmire tied to the Bush Administration; Altmire had no record.  This year, Altmire has a liberal record that he has to defend and a presidentual candidate who isn't popular in his district.  Melissa Hart was a good congresswoman for the 4th congressional district and worked hard for her constituents.  She needs everyone's help if she wants to win back her seat from Mr. Altmire.  I encourage everyone to donate or volunteer to the campaign, and if you live in Pennsylvania's fourth, please vote for the fiscally conservative, pro-life, hardworking Melissa Hart.

  

Altmire                   Hart

(both photos, courtesy United States Congress)

 

   New Mexico is holding its Senate and House primaries tomorrow.  All three House seats will be open seats this year, as all three representatives are running for the open Senate seat of retiring Republican Pete Domenici.  

 

Democratic Congressman Tom Udall is basically guarenteed the Democratic nod, while Republican Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson have been involved in a brutal primary fight.  A SurveyUSA poll released today has Pearce beating Wilson 48-47.  Pearce had been ahead of Wilson by around 5 points in previous polls, but Domenici endorsed Wilson on Friday night and sent the race into a virtual tie.  While Pearce is the more conservative of the two candidates, I think Wilson has a better chance of beating Udall in November.  This race will be extremely close, but I'm going to predict that Domenici's prediction will put Wilson over the top and give her a half percentage point win over Pearce.

 

  

Udall                     Wilson                  Pearce

(photos courtesy washingtonpost.com)

 

 

In New Mexico's 1st District (currently held by Republican Heather Wilson) the winner of tomorrow's Democratic primary will face the likely winner of the GOP primary, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White.  The frontrunner of the crowded Democratic field is Martin Heinrich, who faces some competition from former New Mexico cabinet Secretaries Michelle Lujan Grisham and Rebecca Vigil-Giron.  I'm fairly confident that this will be a White vs. Heinrich race for the General.

 

                             

White (photo courtesy abqtrib.com)   Heinrich (photo courtesy city of Albuquerque)

 

 

I predict that Democrat Harry Teague will take on either Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman or Businessman Ed Tinsley as the GOP nominee in the 2nd District (currently held by Pearce)  in November.  It seems too close to call for the Republicans, as both have are good candidates and have picked up many endorsements.  Both seems to have run a postive campaign, but Tinsley has raised more money than Newman.  Either one will make a good candidate in the General.

 

Finally, the 3rd District (incumbant is Udall) Democratic nominee will probably not have much trouble defeating likley GOP nominee Marco Gonzales in the General election.  The two frontrunners for the Dem nod are Ben Lujan and Don Wiviott.  Lujan has a big advantage here, and it would surprise me if Wiviott pulls off a win here.  I predict Lujan will win the primary and the general in November.

                                                          

 

                            

Lujan (photo courtesy benrlujan.com)  Wiviott (photo courtesty donfornewmexico.com)

   

   The winner of the 5th District's Republican Primary tomorrow will more than likley take on Democratic State Senator Parker Griffith in the General Election.  The 5th District is currently represented by popular Democrat Bud Cramer, who is one of the most conservative Democrats in the House.  Wayne Parker, an ad exec and the GOP candidate against Cramer in 1994 and '96, was the early favorite to win the nomination.  However, attorney Cheryl Baswell Guthrie has put herself into the race and outraised Parker in campaign cash.  Tomorrow's contest will be close between the two, and the winner has a fair chance of helping the GOP take a Democratic seat this November.  Both seem like good candidates, although neither have elective experience and Parker has lost the district twice already.  Look for an extremely close race in the General, regardless of which Republican candidate wins tomorrow (this is a conservative district; Bush took 60% of the vote in 2004).

     

Wayne Parker      Cheryl Baswell Guthrie

6:27:46 PM

Monday, June 02, 2008

 

   Let's take a look at the open races this year for the Senate. Five Republicans are retiring this year.  They are Larry Craig of Idaho, John Warner of Virgnia, Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Wayne Allard of Colorado, and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.  No Democratic Senators are retiring at the moment (although this could change, based on Ted Kennedy's state of health).  

 

In the Idaho race, Lt. Gov Jim Risch is the Republican nominee and former Congressman Larry LaRocco is the Democratic nominee.  This race seems to be a safe GOP seat .  My rating- Republican  

 

Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner will face former GOP Governor Jim Gilmore in Virginia.  A May 8 poll from Rasmussen Reports has Warner leading Gilmore 55-37 (see links at bottom of post for polls).  With numbers like these and the fact that Virginia keeps getting more Democratic as time goes by, I'll have to call this seat for the Democrats.

 

In New Mexico, the entire House delegation is running to replace retiring Senator Pete Domenici.  Republican Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce will face off in a primary Tuesday to see who will face Democratic Rep. Tom Udall.  Although recent polls from SurveyUSA show Udall beating both Republicans, I think this will be a very close race and could go either way.  At the moment, I'll admit that this race tilts to Udalls favor, but I'm going to call this a Tossup.

 

Republicans have chosen former Congressman Bob Schaffer to face Congressman Mark Udall (cousin of Tom) in Colorado.  Polls, have this as a tight race, though Udall has the edge.  Dems have the better candidate here, but still a Tossup.

 

Finally, Former Sec. of Agriculture Mike Johanns (R) will face Scott Kleeb (D) in Nebraska.  In a May 15th poll by Rasmussen, Johanns leads Kleeb by 15 points.

Good GOP candidate + Solid GOP state = Safe Republican pickup.

 

That wraps up my analysis of the open Senate seats of the 2008 elections.  Based on this analysis, I'll give Dems at least a one seat pickup through open seat races.

4:35:20 PM

Monday, June 02, 2008

 

                                                 

 

   The primary that will decide which Republican will run against Democrat Linda Stender in November will take place tomorrow.  New Jeresy's 7th District seat is a top priority for both parties;  Stender came within one percentage point of defeating incumbant Mike Ferguson (who is not seeking reelection this year) in 2006.  The two frontrunners in the GOP primary are Leonard Lance and Kate Whitman.  Lance is a state senator and former minority leader in New Jersey's state senate.  Whitman is a former congressional aide and daughter of former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman.  The race is very tight and I wouldn't be surprised if either one wins tomorrow.  I like both candidates personally, but I'm pulling for Whitman.  Whitman is a young, smart, enthusiastic, and personable politician who I think Stender will have a hard time beating this fall.  Stender, if you didn't know, is one of the state's most liberal assemblymembers.  She is hardcore tax-and-spender and even proposed a ban in the state of New Jersey on Ann Coulter's book Godless:  The Church of Liberalism.  Ms. Stender is just too liberal for this center-right district, and I'm confident that both Lance and Whitman would be able to beat her in the general with sufficient funds and some hard work.

 

 

 

Hi, welcome to my blog!  I hope to offer my opinions and analysis of the 2008 elections, especially congressional and senatorial races.  Thanks for taking the time to visit my blog and I hope you'll come back soon!

8:52:50 PM

Sunday, June 01, 2008