Posted by
Bo S. on Monday, June 02, 2008 8:28:28 PM
New Mexico is holding its Senate and House primaries tomorrow. All three House seats will be open seats this year, as all three representatives are running for the open Senate seat of retiring Republican Pete Domenici.
Democratic Congressman Tom Udall is basically guarenteed the Democratic nod, while Republican Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson have been involved in a brutal primary fight. A SurveyUSA
poll released today has Pearce beating Wilson 48-47. Pearce had been ahead of Wilson by around 5 points in previous polls, but Domenici endorsed Wilson on Friday night and sent the race into a virtual tie. While Pearce is the more conservative of the two candidates, I think Wilson has a better chance of beating Udall in November. This race will be extremely close, but I'm going to predict that Domenici's prediction will put Wilson over the top and give her a half percentage point win over Pearce.
Udall Wilson Pearce
(photos courtesy washingtonpost.com)
In New Mexico's 1st District (currently held by Republican Heather Wilson) the winner of tomorrow's Democratic primary will face the likely winner of the GOP primary, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White. The frontrunner of the crowded Democratic field is Martin Heinrich, who faces some competition from former New Mexico cabinet Secretaries Michelle Lujan Grisham and Rebecca Vigil-Giron. I'm fairly confident that this will be a White vs. Heinrich race for the General.
White (photo courtesy abqtrib.com) Heinrich (photo courtesy city of Albuquerque)
I predict that Democrat Harry Teague will take on either Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman or Businessman Ed Tinsley as the GOP nominee in the 2nd District (currently held by Pearce) in November. It seems too close to call for the Republicans, as both have are good candidates and have picked up many endorsements. Both seems to have run a postive campaign, but Tinsley has raised more money than Newman. Either one will make a good candidate in the General.
Finally, the 3rd District (incumbant is Udall) Democratic nominee will probably not have much trouble defeating likley GOP nominee Marco Gonzales in the General election. The two frontrunners for the Dem nod are Ben Lujan and Don Wiviott. Lujan has a big advantage here, and it would surprise me if Wiviott pulls off a win here. I predict Lujan will win the primary and the general in November.
Lujan
(photo courtesy benrlujan.com) Wiviott
(photo courtesty donfornewmexico.com)
8:27:31 PM
Monday, June 02, 2008