Posted by
Bo S. on Monday, June 02, 2008 4:36:14 PM
Let's take a look at the open races this year for the Senate. Five Republicans are retiring this year. They are Larry Craig of Idaho, John Warner of Virgnia, Pete Domenici of New Mexico, Wayne Allard of Colorado, and Chuck Hagel of Nebraska. No Democratic Senators are retiring at the moment (although this could change, based on Ted Kennedy's state of health).
In the Idaho race, Lt. Gov Jim Risch is the Republican nominee and former Congressman Larry LaRocco is the Democratic nominee. This race seems to be a safe GOP seat . My rating- Republican
Former Democratic Governor Mark Warner will face former GOP Governor Jim Gilmore in Virginia. A May 8 poll from Rasmussen Reports has Warner leading Gilmore 55-37 (see links at bottom of post for polls). With numbers like these and the fact that Virginia keeps getting more Democratic as time goes by, I'll have to call this seat for the Democrats.
In New Mexico, the entire House delegation is running to replace retiring Senator Pete Domenici. Republican Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce will face off in a primary Tuesday to see who will face Democratic Rep. Tom Udall. Although recent polls from SurveyUSA show Udall beating both Republicans, I think this will be a very close race and could go either way. At the moment, I'll admit that this race tilts to Udalls favor, but I'm going to call this a Tossup.
Republicans have chosen former Congressman Bob Schaffer to face Congressman Mark Udall (cousin of Tom) in Colorado. Polls, have this as a tight race, though Udall has the edge. Dems have the better candidate here, but still a Tossup.
Finally, Former Sec. of Agriculture Mike Johanns (R) will face Scott Kleeb (D) in Nebraska. In a May 15th poll by Rasmussen, Johanns leads Kleeb by 15 points.
Good GOP candidate + Solid GOP state = Safe Republican pickup.
That wraps up my analysis of the open Senate seats of the 2008 elections. Based on this analysis, I'll give Dems at least a one seat pickup through open seat races.
4:35:20 PM
Monday, June 02, 2008