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Name: Bo S.
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Tuesday Primary Roundup

Posted by Bo S. on Tuesday, June 03, 2008 10:39:37 AM
 
 
 
My predictions for today's key primaries:
 
New Jersey
Senate Dem primary-  I'll predict that incumbant Lautenberg pulls off a win against Congressman Rob Andrews.  He'll probably win by about ten points.
Senate GOP primary- Joe Penneacchio will win here, with Dick Zimmer in 2nd.
NJ-3 GOP primary- Chris Myers will hold off Jack Kelly by about 6 or 7 points.  He'll face Dem John Adler in November.
NJ-7 GOP primary- This will be extremely close between Leonard Lance and Kate Whitman.  I can see it going to either one.
 
New Mexico
Senate GOP primary-Wilson and Pearce will be within one percentage point of each other, but I think Domenici's endorsement will give Wilson the win here.
NM-1 Dem primary- Martin Heinrich wins fairly easily here.
NM-2 GOP primary- Tinsley or Newman (although a Dunn win wouldn't completely shock me) will win here.  If I had to say which one, I think Tinsley has a slight edge, but a Newman win is almost just as likely.
NM-3 Dem primary-Ben Lujan will beat Don Wiviott and take on Republican Marco Gonzales in the general election.
 
Alabama
AL-2 GOP primary- Harri Anne Smith is the favorite here, but with such a crowded field, there will probably be a runoff in July.  Look for David Woods or Jay Love to get to the runoff with Smith.  In the runoff, Smith still has an advantage, but a Woods or Love win wouldn't be surprising.  The winner faces Bobby Bright in the general.
AL-5 GOP primary- Look for a slight upset with Cheryl Baswell Guthrie beating early favorite Wayne Parker.  She's outraised him and gotten some key endorsements recently.  The winner of this will face Parker Griffith as the as the Democrat in November's race.
 
California
CA-4 GOP primary- State Sen. Ray McClintock and former Congressman Doug Ose are fighting to win the GOP nod in this open seat being vacated by retiring GOP Rep. John Doolittle.  This will be very close;  McClintock appeals to conservatives while Ose has more moderate support.  Either one will have a competative race for the general, in which Retired Air Force Officer Charlie Brown will most likley be the Democratic nominee.
CA-52 GOP primary- Iraq War veteran Duncan D. Hunter won't have a problem getting the GOP nod or winning the general for his father's (retiring Republican Congressman Duncan L. Hunter) seat.
10:38:41 AM
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
 
 
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Alabama's 5th District GOP Primary

Posted by Bo S. on Monday, June 02, 2008 6:28:41 PM

   The winner of the 5th District's Republican Primary tomorrow will more than likley take on Democratic State Senator Parker Griffith in the General Election.  The 5th District is currently represented by popular Democrat Bud Cramer, who is one of the most conservative Democrats in the House.  Wayne Parker, an ad exec and the GOP candidate against Cramer in 1994 and '96, was the early favorite to win the nomination.  However, attorney Cheryl Baswell Guthrie has put herself into the race and outraised Parker in campaign cash.  Tomorrow's contest will be close between the two, and the winner has a fair chance of helping the GOP take a Democratic seat this November.  Both seem like good candidates, although neither have elective experience and Parker has lost the district twice already.  Look for an extremely close race in the General, regardless of which Republican candidate wins tomorrow (this is a conservative district; Bush took 60% of the vote in 2004).
Wayne Parker (R)     Cheryl Baswell Guthrie (R)
Wayne Parker      Cheryl Baswell Guthrie
(Both photos, courtesy, whnt.com)
6:27:46 PM
Monday, June 02, 2008
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Alabama's 2nd District GOP Primary

Posted by Bo S. on Monday, June 02, 2008 2:04:33 PM
   


In this distirct, being vacated by Republican Rep. Terry Everett, 3 Republicans have emerged as the frontrunners for tomorrow's primary:  State Representative Jay Love, TV Executive David Woods, and State Senator Harri Anne Smith.  Smith is the favorite here, but if one candidate doesn't get a majority, the top two vote-getters will face off in a July 15th runoff.  The victor of the primary will almost certainly face popular Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright as the Democratic candidate in November.  This seat should remain in Republican hands, but if conservative Democrat Bright campaigns well, this seat will be competative.
                                                     
Smith (from harrianne2008.com)    Love (from AL state Legislature site)    Woods (from davidwoodsforcongress.com)
2:03:39 PM
Monday, June 02, 2008
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