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Tuesday Primary Roundup

Posted by Bo S. on Tuesday, June 03, 2008 10:39:37 AM
 
 
 
My predictions for today's key primaries:
 
New Jersey
Senate Dem primary-  I'll predict that incumbant Lautenberg pulls off a win against Congressman Rob Andrews.  He'll probably win by about ten points.
Senate GOP primary- Joe Penneacchio will win here, with Dick Zimmer in 2nd.
NJ-3 GOP primary- Chris Myers will hold off Jack Kelly by about 6 or 7 points.  He'll face Dem John Adler in November.
NJ-7 GOP primary- This will be extremely close between Leonard Lance and Kate Whitman.  I can see it going to either one.
 
New Mexico
Senate GOP primary-Wilson and Pearce will be within one percentage point of each other, but I think Domenici's endorsement will give Wilson the win here.
NM-1 Dem primary- Martin Heinrich wins fairly easily here.
NM-2 GOP primary- Tinsley or Newman (although a Dunn win wouldn't completely shock me) will win here.  If I had to say which one, I think Tinsley has a slight edge, but a Newman win is almost just as likely.
NM-3 Dem primary-Ben Lujan will beat Don Wiviott and take on Republican Marco Gonzales in the general election.
 
Alabama
AL-2 GOP primary- Harri Anne Smith is the favorite here, but with such a crowded field, there will probably be a runoff in July.  Look for David Woods or Jay Love to get to the runoff with Smith.  In the runoff, Smith still has an advantage, but a Woods or Love win wouldn't be surprising.  The winner faces Bobby Bright in the general.
AL-5 GOP primary- Look for a slight upset with Cheryl Baswell Guthrie beating early favorite Wayne Parker.  She's outraised him and gotten some key endorsements recently.  The winner of this will face Parker Griffith as the as the Democrat in November's race.
 
California
CA-4 GOP primary- State Sen. Ray McClintock and former Congressman Doug Ose are fighting to win the GOP nod in this open seat being vacated by retiring GOP Rep. John Doolittle.  This will be very close;  McClintock appeals to conservatives while Ose has more moderate support.  Either one will have a competative race for the general, in which Retired Air Force Officer Charlie Brown will most likley be the Democratic nominee.
CA-52 GOP primary- Iraq War veteran Duncan D. Hunter won't have a problem getting the GOP nod or winning the general for his father's (retiring Republican Congressman Duncan L. Hunter) seat.
10:38:41 AM
Tuesday, June 03, 2008
 
 
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New Mexico Primaries

Posted by Bo S. on Monday, June 02, 2008 8:28:28 PM

   New Mexico is holding its Senate and House primaries tomorrow.  All three House seats will be open seats this year, as all three representatives are running for the open Senate seat of retiring Republican Pete Domenici.  
 
Democratic Congressman Tom Udall is basically guarenteed the Democratic nod, while Republican Reps. Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson have been involved in a brutal primary fight.  A SurveyUSA poll released today has Pearce beating Wilson 48-47.  Pearce had been ahead of Wilson by around 5 points in previous polls, but Domenici endorsed Wilson on Friday night and sent the race into a virtual tie.  While Pearce is the more conservative of the two candidates, I think Wilson has a better chance of beating Udall in November.  This race will be extremely close, but I'm going to predict that Domenici's prediction will put Wilson over the top and give her a half percentage point win over Pearce.
 
  Stevan Pearce
Udall                     Wilson                  Pearce
(photos courtesy washingtonpost.com)
 
 
In New Mexico's 1st District (currently held by Republican Heather Wilson) the winner of tomorrow's Democratic primary will face the likely winner of the GOP primary, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White.  The frontrunner of the crowded Democratic field is Martin Heinrich, who faces some competition from former New Mexico cabinet Secretaries Michelle Lujan Grisham and Rebecca Vigil-Giron.  I'm fairly confident that this will be a White vs. Heinrich race for the General.
 
                              Image:Hei.jpg
White (photo courtesy abqtrib.com)   Heinrich (photo courtesy city of Albuquerque)
 
 
I predict that Democrat Harry Teague will take on either Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman or Businessman Ed Tinsley as the GOP nominee in the 2nd District (currently held by Pearce)  in November.  It seems too close to call for the Republicans, as both have are good candidates and have picked up many endorsements.  Both seems to have run a postive campaign, but Tinsley has raised more money than Newman.  Either one will make a good candidate in the General.
 
Finally, the 3rd District (incumbant is Udall) Democratic nominee will probably not have much trouble defeating likley GOP nominee Marco Gonzales in the General election.  The two frontrunners for the Dem nod are Ben Lujan and Don Wiviott.  Lujan has a big advantage here, and it would surprise me if Wiviott pulls off a win here.  I predict Lujan will win the primary and the general in November.
                                                          
 
Ben R. Lujan                            
Lujan (photo courtesy benrlujan.com)  Wiviott (photo courtesty donfornewmexico.com)
 
8:27:31 PM
Monday, June 02, 2008
   
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